Seems to be a "pattern" in AI for weather forecasting --
1. Due to AI hype and funding (even predecessor hype cycles like "big data", ML, even GOF time-series statistics), generate 100s of AI models.
2. Of these, a few perform better than current models and are seen as the "future".
3. One year later models in 2. fail catastrophically.
4. Go back to step 1.
IBM tried with Watson based modeling on weather.com and it was a spectacular failure. Hopefully things have improved enough to beat traditional weather models, but I honestly don't know enough about this area to speculate. Classical modeling, I.E. non neural network models, have been iteratively improved on for decades by the brightest minds in weather science and are barely able to eek out something close to a 50% accuracy in forecast. About 5 years ago that was 10x better than the AI based modeling available, It would be cool to see some advancement here!
Should we not get comparisons and absolute values based on true|false positives|negatives?
The most relevant parts seem to be:
> In seconds... [the ML based] GraphCast can produce a 10-day forecast that would take a supercomputer [crunching through traditional deterministic methods] more than an hour
> GraphCast outperformed the best forecasting model of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts more than 90 percent of the time
> Dr. Lam said the study found that GraphCast locked in on landfall in Nova Scotia three days before the supercomputers reached the same conclusion
> the European center was considered the world’s top weather agency because comparative tests have regularly shown its forecasts to exceed all others in accuracy
neonate ·88 days ago
lainga ·88 days ago
Ed.: too late! https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40577332
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npalli ·88 days ago
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kelsey98765431 ·87 days ago
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mdp2021 ·88 days ago
The most relevant parts seem to be:
> In seconds... [the ML based] GraphCast can produce a 10-day forecast that would take a supercomputer [crunching through traditional deterministic methods] more than an hour
> GraphCast outperformed the best forecasting model of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts more than 90 percent of the time
> Dr. Lam said the study found that GraphCast locked in on landfall in Nova Scotia three days before the supercomputers reached the same conclusion
> the European center was considered the world’s top weather agency because comparative tests have regularly shown its forecasts to exceed all others in accuracy